Rotherham vs Derby Tuesday 04th August 2026 09:30 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Rotherham Derby

Rotherham W L W D D W

Derby L W L L W L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Both Rotherham and Derby are in moderate recent form, but Derby has a clear quality gap in their favor. Despite Rotherham dominating recent meetings and having a rest advantage, the model predicts an away win with a 50% probability, which is notably more confident than the market odds suggest. The model also leans toward both teams scoring and toward there being over 1.5 goals, seeing these as stronger bets than the market implies.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Rotherham	Derby	3 - 0	February 3, 2021
Derby	Rotherham	0 - 1	January 16, 2021
Derby	Rotherham	6 - 1	March 30, 2019
Rotherham	Derby	1 - 0	September 15, 2018
Rotherham	Derby	1 - 1	May 7, 2017
Derby	Rotherham	3 - 0	November 19, 2016

Rotherham Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 28, 26	Away	Darlington 1883	0 - 2	Win
Jul 25, 26	Home	Sheffield Utd	0 - 2	Loss
Jul 21, 26	Away	Alfreton Town	0 - 1	Win
Jul 18, 26	Away	Matlock Town	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 14, 26	Away	AFC Emley	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 10, 26	Away	Parkgate	0 - 1	Win

Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 1, 26	Away	Burton Albion	1 - 0	Loss
Jul 31, 26	Away	Mansfield Town	1 - 3	Win
Jul 28, 26	Home	Valencia	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 24, 26	Away	SC Freiburg	3 - 1	Loss
Jul 17, 26	Away	Alfreton Town	0 - 2	Win
May 2, 26	Home	Sheffield Utd	1 - 2	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.4% likelihood that both Rotherham and Derby will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Derby to win

This prediction indicates that Derby has a 49.52% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.73 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.85% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.8% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Top Picks

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Odds Comparison

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