Bournemouth vs Genoa Tuesday 04th August 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Bournemouth Genoa

Bournemouth W W D D W W

Genoa W D W L L D

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Bournemouth has a clear quality gap in their favor over Genoa. The model predicts a home win with a 63% probability, which is noticeably higher than what the current market odds imply. Additionally, Bournemouth's strong recent form and rest advantage support this prediction. The model also suggests a high likelihood of over 1.5 goals (59% probability), aligning with the market's strong lean toward a similar outcome.

Bournemouth Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 30, 26	Away	FC Augsburg	2 - 5	Win
Jul 24, 26	Home	FC St. Pauli	4 - 1	Win
May 24, 26	Away	Nottingham Forest	1 - 1	Draw
May 19, 26	Home	Manchester City	1 - 1	Draw
May 9, 26	Away	Fulham	0 - 1	Win
May 3, 26	Home	Crystal Palace	3 - 0	Win

Genoa Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 1, 26	Away	Leicester	0 - 1	Win
Jul 25, 26	Home	Vicenza Virtus	2 - 2	Draw
Jul 19, 26	Home	Trento	2 - 1	Win
May 24, 26	Away	Lecce	1 - 0	Loss
May 17, 26	Home	AC Milan	1 - 2	Loss
May 10, 26	Away	Fiorentina	0 - 0	Draw

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.45% likelihood that both Bournemouth and Genoa will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Bournemouth to win

This prediction indicates that Bournemouth has a 63.16% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 21.65 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 59.0% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 64.78% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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