MLS Next Pro
Match Analysis
Bethlehem Steel
New York City II
Bethlehem Steel
W
W
W
L
W
W
New York City II
W
W
L
L
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Historically, Bethlehem Steel has had the upper hand in meetings between these two teams. Despite this head-to-head dominance and a modest quality edge, the model predicts a 38% chance of an away win for New York City II, which is notably less confident than what the market odds imply. The model also sees a strong likelihood of both teams scoring and for the match to feature more than one or two goals overall, aligning closely with the market's view on these points.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City II | Bethlehem Steel | 1 - 1 | August 1, 2026 |
| Bethlehem Steel | New York City II | 0 - 1 | June 14, 2026 |
| Bethlehem Steel | New York City II | 4 - 3 | October 5, 2025 |
| New York City II | Bethlehem Steel | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2025 |
| New York City II | Bethlehem Steel | 1 - 4 | April 23, 2025 |
| Bethlehem Steel | New York City II | 1 - 0 | October 20, 2024 |
Bethlehem Steel Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | Chicago Fire | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 4, 26 | Home | Columbus Crew II | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | FC Cincinnati II | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Connecticut FC | 2 - 4 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | New England II | 3 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | FC Cincinnati II | 2 - 1 | Win |
New York City II Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Connecticut FC | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 8, 26 | Home | New York RB II | 4 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 1, 26 | Away | Fort Lauderdale CF | 4 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 28, 26 | Away | Toronto II | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | New England II | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 19, 26 | Home | FC Cincinnati II | 5 - 0 | Win |
MLS Next Pro Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | New York City II | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 43 | +6 | 43 |
| 16 | Bethlehem Steel | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 40 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 68.6% likelihood that both Bethlehem Steel and New York City II will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Bethlehem Steel or New York City II to win
This prediction indicates that New York City II has a 37.54% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.99 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 69.25% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 74.43% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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