Ettan - Norra
Match Analysis
Piteå
Järfälla
Piteå
L
L
W
L
D
D
Järfälla
W
L
L
L
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Piteå with a 41% probability. Despite Järfälla having a modest quality edge, both teams are in poor recent form, and Piteå have shown defensive struggles, which may create opportunities for both sides to score. The model also suggests a higher likelihood of over 1.5 goals (61%) and over 2.5 goals (59%), as well as both teams scoring (57%). The market odds show slightly less confidence in a home win and over 2.5 goals than the model's probabilities, while they are more confident about both teams scoring than the model.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Järfälla | Piteå | 1 - 0 | April 26, 2026 |
Piteå Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 26 | Home | Umeå FC | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | AFC Eskilstuna | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Karlberg | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | FBK Karlstad | 4 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Hammarby Talang | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Vasalund | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Järfälla Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 26 | Home | Karlberg | 5 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | gefle IF | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | FBK Karlstad | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Assyriska FF | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Stockholm Internazionale | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Sollentuna | 2 - 1 | Loss |
Ettan - Norra Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Järfälla | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 18 |
| 15 | Piteå | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 15 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.0% likelihood that both Piteå and Järfälla will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Piteå or Järfälla to win
This prediction indicates that Piteå has a 40.61% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.25 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.91% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.6% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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