La Liga
Match Analysis
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
L
L
L
W
W
D
Rayo Vallecano
W
L
W
L
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts an Osasuna home win with a 38% probability. Despite Rayo Vallecano having a clear quality advantage, Osasuna's dominance in recent head-to-head matches and their moderate recent form contribute to this prediction. The model sees the match as one where both teams are likely to score (53% probability), but expects fewer overall goals, leaning toward 'under' for both the 1.5 and 2.5 goal lines (47% over for 1.5, 49% over for 2.5). The model's confidence in a home win is lower than what the market odds imply, which favor Rayo Vallecano more strongly, while it is slightly more confident about both teams scoring than the market odds suggest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | 1 - 3 | January 24, 2026 |
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | 2 - 0 | September 14, 2025 |
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | 1 - 1 | January 19, 2025 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | 3 - 1 | September 16, 2024 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | 2 - 1 | April 20, 2024 |
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | 1 - 0 | December 15, 2023 |
Osasuna Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 26 | Away | Atletico Madrid | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Espanyol | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Alaves | 5 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 31, 26 | Home | Getafe | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 27, 26 | Away | Celta Vigo | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 24, 26 | Home | Levante | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Rayo Vallecano Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 26 | Home | Espanyol | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Real Madrid | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Racing Santander | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 31, 26 | Away | Barcelona | 5 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 20, 26 | Home | Alaves | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Sevilla | 2 - 1 | Loss |
La Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Osasuna to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Osasuna has a 37.67% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.93 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.68% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.94% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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