Ettan - Norra
Match Analysis
Järfälla
Karlberg
Järfälla
L
L
L
L
L
L
Karlberg
W
L
D
L
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Karlberg is seen as the stronger side in this matchup, with a clear quality gap in their favor, while Järfälla are struggling with poor recent form. The model predicts a 56% chance that Karlberg will win, which is notably higher confidence than what the current market odds suggest. Additionally, the model expects both teams to score and for the match to have more than 1.5 goals, aligning with recent meetings that featured plenty of goals.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karlberg | Järfälla | 1 - 3 | May 16, 2026 |
| Järfälla | Karlberg | 1 - 1 | September 17, 2023 |
| Karlberg | Järfälla | 0 - 1 | May 18, 2023 |
| Järfälla | Karlberg | 1 - 3 | October 17, 2021 |
| Karlberg | Järfälla | 6 - 1 | August 14, 2021 |
Järfälla Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | gefle IF | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | FBK Karlstad | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Assyriska FF | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Stockholm Internazionale | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Sollentuna | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | IF Karlstad | 1 - 4 | Loss |
Karlberg Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Arlanda | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Piteå | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 31, 26 | Away | Hammarby Talang | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | AFC Eskilstuna | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Stocksund | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 7, 26 | Away | Enköping | 2 - 1 | Loss |
Ettan - Norra Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Karlberg | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 28 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 24 | 47 | -23 | 15 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.96% likelihood that both Järfälla and Karlberg will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Karlberg to win
This prediction indicates that Karlberg has a 55.54% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 22.12 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.12% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.3% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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