La Liga
Match Analysis
Athletic Club
Alaves
Athletic Club
D
W
W
L
L
L
Alaves
L
L
W
W
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Athletic Club with a 57% probability. The model sees the two teams as closely matched in overall quality and notes that both have shown moderate recent form. However, it also highlights Athletic Club's dominance in recent meetings between the two sides, where goals have typically been hard to come by, as well as a notable rest advantage for Athletic Club. The market odds suggest a slightly stronger belief in a home win than the model's prediction, and they also imply a higher likelihood of goals being scored than the model does.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | Athletic Club | 2 - 4 | May 2, 2026 |
| Athletic Club | Alaves | 0 - 1 | September 13, 2025 |
| Alaves | Athletic Club | 1 - 0 | July 22, 2025 |
| Athletic Club | Alaves | 1 - 0 | May 11, 2025 |
| Alaves | Athletic Club | 1 - 1 | December 15, 2024 |
| Athletic Club | Alaves | 2 - 0 | March 16, 2024 |
Athletic Club Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Elche | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Atletico Madrid | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Celta Vigo | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 27, 26 | Away | Barcelona | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Sevilla | 1 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Zaragoza | 3 - 1 | Loss |
Alaves Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 26 | Home | Valencia | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Racing Santander | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Osasuna | 5 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 28, 26 | Home | Villarreal | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 20, 26 | Away | Rayo Vallecano | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Getafe | 3 - 0 | Win |
La Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 51.11% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Athletic Club to win
This prediction indicates that Athletic Club has a 56.58% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.57 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.31% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.47% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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