Serie A
Match Analysis
Monza
Sassuolo
Monza
L
D
W
L
L
W
Sassuolo
W
D
D
W
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts Sassuolo to win with a 39% probability. It sees Sassuolo as having a modest quality edge and notes that Monza is in poor recent form, while Sassuolo is in moderate recent form. Despite Monza's historical dominance in recent meetings between the two teams, the model leans toward Sassuolo due to the current form difference. The market odds imply a stronger favor for Sassuolo than the model's 39% probability suggests, as the odds are slightly more confident in an away win.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | Sassuolo | 2 - 2 | August 3, 2024 |
| Monza | Sassuolo | 1 - 0 | January 28, 2024 |
| Sassuolo | Monza | 0 - 1 | October 2, 2023 |
| Sassuolo | Monza | 1 - 2 | May 19, 2023 |
| Monza | Sassuolo | 1 - 1 | January 22, 2023 |
Monza Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | Lecce | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Parma | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 1, 26 | Away | Torino | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Udinese | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Inter | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 14, 26 | Home | Avellino | 3 - 0 | Win |
Sassuolo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Juventus | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Bologna | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Sep 2, 26 | Home | Frosinone | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Torino | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Atalanta | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 17, 26 | Home | Cesena | 3 - 0 | Win |
Serie A Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sassuolo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Monza | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.71% likelihood that both Monza and Sassuolo will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Monza or Sassuolo to win
This prediction indicates that Sassuolo has a 39.22% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.15 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.51% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.64% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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