Serie A
Match Analysis
Fiorentina
Napoli
Fiorentina
L
W
L
L
L
L
Napoli
W
L
L
L
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
In their recent meetings, Napoli has generally dominated Fiorentina, and those games often featured plenty of goals. The model predicts a 47% chance that Napoli will win, which is notably higher than what the current market odds suggest. The recent form favors Napoli, who also have a rest advantage, while Fiorentina is coming off a spell of poor results. The model also leans towards both teams scoring and for the match to feature more than one or two goals overall.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | Fiorentina | 2 - 1 | January 31, 2026 |
| Fiorentina | Napoli | 1 - 3 | September 13, 2025 |
| Napoli | Fiorentina | 2 - 1 | March 9, 2025 |
| Fiorentina | Napoli | 0 - 3 | January 4, 2025 |
| Fiorentina | Napoli | 2 - 2 | May 17, 2024 |
| Napoli | Fiorentina | 1 - 3 | October 8, 2023 |
Fiorentina Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 26 | Away | Pisa | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 11, 26 | Away | Venezia | 2 - 4 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Torino | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Frosinone | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 24, 26 | Away | AS Roma | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 14, 26 | Away | Benevento | 4 - 1 | Loss |
Napoli Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Bologna | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 9, 26 | Home | Arsenal | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Inter | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | como | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Genoa | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 12, 26 | Home | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 - 2 | Win |
Serie A Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Napoli | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.6% likelihood that both Fiorentina and Napoli will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Napoli to win
This prediction indicates that Napoli has a 46.75% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.13 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.03% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.78% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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