Premier League
Match Analysis
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Tottenham
L
D
D
L
W
L
Aston Villa
W
L
W
D
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts Tottenham will win with a 49% probability, which is slightly less confident than what the current market odds imply for a home victory. Despite Aston Villa having a clear quality advantage and generally better recent form, as well as a history of dominant, high-scoring matches against Tottenham, the model leans toward a home win. The model also suggests there’s a 51% chance both teams will score and a 53% chance of more than 2.5 goals, aligning closely with market views on these being likely outcomes. Overall, the model expects a competitive match with a slight edge to Tottenham, and plenty of goals.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | 1 - 2 | May 3, 2026 |
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | 1 - 2 | January 10, 2026 |
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | 1 - 2 | October 19, 2025 |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | 2 - 0 | May 16, 2025 |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | 2 - 1 | February 9, 2025 |
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | 4 - 1 | November 3, 2024 |
Tottenham Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 26 | Away | Liverpool | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Everton | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Nottingham Forest | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Newcastle | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 26, 26 | Home | Charlton | 5 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Brentford | 3 - 0 | Loss |
Aston Villa Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 26 | Away | Coventry | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 8, 26 | Away | Club Brugge KV | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Hull City | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 31, 26 | Home | Arsenal | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Brighton | 4 - 0 | Loss |
Premier League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.69% likelihood that both Tottenham and Aston Villa will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Tottenham to win
This prediction indicates that Tottenham has a 48.72% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.32 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.91% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.55% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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