Premier League
Match Analysis
Brighton
Arsenal
Brighton
W
W
D
L
W
W
Arsenal
W
W
W
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts an away win for Arsenal with a 55% probability, suggesting the team is favored due to a clear quality gap in their favor and strong recent form, including dominant past meetings. The market odds also reflect Arsenal's edge, though they imply slightly less confidence than the model. Additionally, the model sees a good chance both teams will score (59%) and that there will be more than one or two goals in the game (56% over 1.5 goals and 54% over 2.5 goals), indicating an expectation of an open, attacking match despite fairly even recent shot volume between the sides.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | Arsenal | 0 - 1 | March 4, 2026 |
| Arsenal | Brighton | 2 - 1 | December 27, 2025 |
| Arsenal | Brighton | 2 - 0 | October 29, 2025 |
| Brighton | Arsenal | 1 - 1 | January 4, 2025 |
| Arsenal | Brighton | 1 - 1 | August 31, 2024 |
| Brighton | Arsenal | 0 - 3 | April 6, 2024 |
Brighton Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 26 | Away | Manchester United | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | Coventry | 0 - 5 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Leeds | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Chelsea | 4 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 27, 26 | Home | Tromso | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Aston Villa | 4 - 0 | Win |
Arsenal Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 26 | Away | Ipswich | 2 - 4 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Sunderland | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 9, 26 | Away | Napoli | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 31, 26 | Away | Aston Villa | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 21, 26 | Home | Coventry | 3 - 0 | Win |
Premier League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.19% likelihood that both Brighton and Arsenal will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Arsenal to win
This prediction indicates that Arsenal has a 55.47% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.91 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.26% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.62% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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