Premier League
Match Analysis
Brentford
Chelsea
Brentford
W
D
D
D
W
W
Chelsea
D
W
L
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts Chelsea to win with a 41% probability, which is notably less confident than what the current market odds suggest for an away victory. The model also sees a strong chance (65%) that both teams will score and that there will be more than one goal in the game, aligning with the market's strong favor for "over 1.5 goals." These predictions reflect Chelsea's stronger recent form, a rest advantage, and their recent creation of more shooting chances, despite the teams being closely matched in overall quality and recent meetings often ending in draws.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | Brentford | 2 - 0 | January 17, 2026 |
| Brentford | Chelsea | 2 - 2 | September 13, 2025 |
| Brentford | Chelsea | 0 - 0 | April 6, 2025 |
| Chelsea | Brentford | 2 - 1 | December 15, 2024 |
| Brentford | Chelsea | 2 - 2 | March 2, 2024 |
| Chelsea | Brentford | 0 - 2 | October 28, 2023 |
Brentford Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 26 | Away | Reading | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Sunderland | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Leeds | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 25, 26 | Away | Birmingham | 1 - 6 | Win |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Tottenham | 3 - 0 | Win |
Chelsea Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Hull City | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Sep 9, 26 | Home | Leeds | 6 - 3 | Win |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Brighton | 4 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 27, 26 | Home | Luton | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 24, 26 | Away | Fulham | 2 - 3 | Win |
Premier League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 64.53% likelihood that both Brentford and Chelsea will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Brentford or Chelsea to win
This prediction indicates that Chelsea has a 40.63% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.00 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 65.18% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 64.43% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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