UEFA Champions League
Match Analysis
Fenerbahce
AS Roma
Fenerbahce
L
W
W
W
D
L
AS Roma
W
W
W
D
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Fenerbahçe with a 46% probability. Despite the teams being closely matched in overall quality and showing strong recent form, the model leans towards Fenerbahçe at home. The market odds imply a slightly lower chance of a home win, as they favor Roma more strongly. Additionally, the model sees a high likelihood (54%) that both teams will score and that there will be over 1.5 goals (57%), aligning with the market's strong preference for an over outcome.
Fenerbahce Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Besiktas | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Samsunspor | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 26, 26 | Away | Lyon | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Konyaspor | 4 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 18, 26 | Home | Lyon | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Genclerbirligi | 2 - 1 | Loss |
AS Roma Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Atalanta | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 31, 26 | Away | Lecce | 0 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 24, 26 | Home | Fiorentina | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Brighton | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 4, 26 | Away | Newport County | 1 - 4 | Win |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.76% likelihood that both Fenerbahce and AS Roma will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Fenerbahce to win
This prediction indicates that Fenerbahce has a 46.25% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.15 %Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.68% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.8% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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