Superettan
Match Analysis
Orebro SK
IFK Varnamo
Orebro SK
D
L
W
L
D
D
IFK Varnamo
D
L
L
L
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The match features Orebro SK, who hold a clear quality advantage over IFK Varnamo, but both teams have been in poor recent form, making the outcome uncertain. The model predicts a home win with a 44% probability, which is slightly less confident than what the current market odds imply. Additionally, the model sees a strong chance for over 1.5 goals (58%), aligning closely with the market's view that this outcome is likely. IFK Varnamo's recent defensive issues further support the prediction of a goal-filled game.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Varnamo | Orebro SK | 0 - 1 | May 12, 2026 |
| IFK Varnamo | Orebro SK | 0 - 3 | March 21, 2026 |
Orebro SK Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 26 | Home | Oddevold | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | United Nordic | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | Ostersunds FK | 2 - 4 | Win |
| Jun 27, 26 | Away | ljungSKile SK | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jun 22, 26 | Home | Sandviken | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 14, 26 | Away | falkenbergs FF | 1 - 1 | Draw |
IFK Varnamo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | IK brage | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | ljungSKile SK | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Jul 13, 26 | Home | Naestved | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Jun 28, 26 | Away | Landskrona BoIS | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 21, 26 | Away | IK brage | 5 - 1 | Loss |
| Jun 16, 26 | Home | Helsingborg | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Superettan Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Orebro SK | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
| 15 | IFK Varnamo | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 11 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.8% likelihood that both Orebro SK and IFK Varnamo will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Orebro SK to win
This prediction indicates that Orebro SK has a 44.23% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.60 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.03% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.82% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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